From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”