A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
