Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.